Bill Wishon’s News and Views

The Internet is not above or beyond the reach of the law.  Already we have laws in place around the world that address various aspects of the Internet and the impacts the Internet is having on existing laws.

In pretty much every country in the world stealing is against the law and people seem to understand this and generally don’t steal.  There will always be the ongoing cat and mouse / cops and robbers game, but that represents a small fraction of society at large.

Why is it then that people who have never and would never shoplift CDs and DVDs from their local store are doing the same thing online every day?  And what will happen in the future?

I see three main factors that drive the online stealing behavior, 1) the content is free, 2) the content is easy to get and 3) there is a perception of anonymity or at least some sort of security in knowing that “everyone else is doing it, and they can’t catch everyone”.

There are many companies and technologies that have benefited directly and indirectly from this wave of theft.  In this article I’m going to focus on BitTorrent, because they are the predominant protocol being used to facilitate theft and piracy of content online.  By various metrics BitTorrent traffic makes up somewhere between 40% and 70% of internet traffic and as far as I can tell the majority of those bits are from pirated content.

BitTorrent has split into two entities like many P2P companies / protocols.  One is the open source based protocol and community developing and maintaining that protocol.  The other is the private company focused on the commercialization of that protocol.  What’s going to happen to these two entities and others like them going forward?

First let’s look at the open source version.  This version will get into a cat and mouse game with the authorities and laws of various countries worldwide as the lawmaking bodies of these countries begin to apply the same basic principles that exist in the real world to the online world.  This will force more visibility by law enforcement into the workings of ISPs, network operators, businesses and creators of software systems.  While I acknowledge that this game will never end, and be very costly for both sides I feel that it is inevitable and ultimately a good thing.  Just like the real world law enforcement never ends and is costly, but it creates a society where stealing is rare and that is definitely a good thing.  It is the increased effort to participate (both in time and money) and the increased risk of getting caught that will cause people to abandon the pirate behaviors and to adopt commercially viable, legal alternatives.

So what does that mean for the commercial version of BitTorrent?  It means that it will have to change substantially at a technical level to differentiate itself from the open source version.  In order to sell its technology it needs to provide an assurance of a quality of service.  If at any moment the protocol can be inspected and altered because of suspected illegal activities companies will not want to use the protocol.  Therefore BitTorrent will have to signal to the networks and authorities somehow that it is legitimate and to not adversely affect its operation.  Furthermore it needs to do this in a way that does not allow the open source version to copy and imitate it otherwise it is of no use as a differentiator.

Once successfully separated from the open source cousin BitTorrent the commercial version will have no “install base”, no “millions of users” because the new legitimate protocol will be incompatible with the open source version.  This definitely deals a setback to the commercial version of BitTorrent and would affect its ability to attract new customers.  Furthermore the ongoing cat and mouse game being played out by the open source BitTorrent version will negatively affect the brand and image of the company and keep large businesses wary of doing business with BitTorrent, as they are today.  In the long run I feel that these technical and market based factors could cause the downfall of the commercial version of BitTorrent.